CoreWeave (CRWV)

Investment Review After Q1 FY2026 Earnings (2026.05.07)

TL;DR

CoreWeave is the leading pure-play AI cloud "neocloud," owning the full stack from data centers to GPU compute and default per NVIDIA reference architecture. Just reported: Q1 FY2026 revenue $2.1B (+112% YoY), adj EBITDA $1.2B (56% margin), adj OI $21M (1% trough), backlog $99.4B (~4x YoY) with $40B+ Q1 commitments + Anthropic added; $20B+ raised YTD including first-ever IG-rated HPC infra DDTL at <6% — transformational. FY2026 reaffirmed $12-13B rev / $900M-$1.1B adj OI; exit ARR raised to $18-19B, $30B+ by 2027 — durable hypergrowth, margin inflects Q2→Q3. Stock at $129, NM P/E, +67% post last quarter end — trades on backlog mults; risks: $31-35B CapEx, Debt/EBITDA 9.8x, NVIDIA dependency.

Summary

Finding	Assessment
Since-IPO Stock Return	Stock currently at $129, up 222% from $40 IPO (Mar 2025). Peaked $160 (Jun), troughed $74 (Dec) on execution concerns, recovering on strong Q1 and $99B backlog. P/E NM (GAAP loss); TTM OP -$163M.
Business Model	STRONG. Purpose-built AI cloud platform serving hyperscalers, AI labs, enterprises with ~5-year take-or-pay GPU infra contracts. Q1 rev $2.1B (+112%), $99.4B backlog, 1+ GW active across 50 data centers.
Competitive Moat	NARROW First-mover execution (Platinum ClusterMAX, GB200 Exemplar Cloud), 5-year contract stickiness, 90%+ multi-product attach, software moat (SUNK). Narrowed by NVIDIA single-supplier and hyperscaler cloud competition.
OP Drivers	Explosive AI infra demand (+112% rev growth), rapid data center expansion (0 to 1+ GW in ~3 years), platform evolution from GPU-only to full-stack (CPU/storage/software/networking each >$100M ARR by year-end), NVIDIA partnership.
Recent Stock Move	Stock $129, +67% post last quarter end from $77 (Q1) close. Q1 +112% rev beat + $40B Q1 commitments + DDTL 4.0 IG-rated milestone drove rally. P/E(ttm) NM (GAAP loss).
Revenue Trend	FLAT Rev YoY: 112% (Q1 2026) → 117% (Q2 2026E).
Margin Trend	EXPANDING OM%: -7% (Q1 2026) → -3% (Q2 2026E).
TTM OP Trajectory	DECELERATING TTM OP QoQ: 253% (Q1 2026) → 59% (Q2 2026E). TTM OP -$163M.
Key Opportunities	Backlog $99.4B (~4x YoY); $40B+ Q1 commitments. Anthropic added; Meta $21B order; 4/4 preeminent AI labs. $20B+ raised YTD incl. first-ever IG-rated HPC infra DDTL at <6%. Fin services vertical $10B+ backlog. CoreWeave Omni for sovereign/enterprise.
Key Risks	$31-35B FY2026 CapEx (~3x revenue); Q1 interest $536M; Debt/EBITDA 9.8x. NVIDIA single-supplier; concentrated Top-2 hyperscaler base. Q1 net loss -$740M. Margin trough Q1 (1% adj OM); recovery requires execution discipline through 2026.
Catalysts	Q2 guide rev $2.45-2.6B, adj OI $30-90M. Margin inflection Q2→Q3 ("escape velocity"); low-double-digit adj OM by Q4. 1.7+ GW active power by year-end. Vera Rubin H2 2026. First self-build site online later in 2026. Continued WACD compression toward IG corporate rating.
P/E(ttm) Valuation	NM — GAAP loss-making. At $129 stock, CRWV trades at ~5x FY2026E revenue ($12.5B midpoint) and ~3x exit 2026 ARR ($18-19B). Valuation depends on backlog conversion + margin expansion to 25-30% mature adj OM, not traditional P/E.

Q1 FY2026 Key Data

Revenue $2.1B (+112% YoY, +32% QoQ); adj EBITDA $1.2B (56% margin, +91%); adj OI $21M (1% trough). Net loss -$740M. CapEx $6.8B. $3.3B+ cash. Active power crossed 1 GW.
Backlog $99.4B (~4x YoY, +50% QoQ); $40B+ new commitments in Q1. Anthropic added; multiple Meta orders incl. $21B; 4/4 preeminent AI labs + 9/10 leaders ex-China use CRWV. 10 customers at $1B+.
Q2 guide rev $2.45-2.6B, adj OI $30-90M; FY2026 reaffirmed $12-13B / $900M-$1.1B adj OI. Exit ARR raised to $18-19B (+$1B); $30B+ ARR by 2027 (75%+ contracted). FY26 CapEx $31-35B.

Key Takeaways from Earnings Call

Demand intensifying: $40B+ commitments in single quarter; A100/H100/H200/L40S pricing rose QoQ. Backlog 4x YoY. Fin services vertical $10B+ (Jane Street +$6B, Hudson River); Physical AI $1B+. CoreWeave Omni for sovereign/enterprise.
Capital milestone: $20B+ raised YTD; first-ever IG-rated HPC infra DDTL 4.0 (A-) at <6%. WACD compressed 80bps YTD (600bps since 2023). $2B from NVIDIA, $1B Jane Street. DDTL 5.0 priced for OpenAI + Cohere. S&P outlook stable→positive.
Margin trough Q1, sequential expansion — low double-digit adj OM by Q4. Powered-shell receipt incurs lease/depreciation 1-2 months before revenue (negative contribution start, mid-20s by month 3). "Escape velocity" Q2→Q3.

Key Segments and Revenue Mix (FY2025)

Segment	Revenue	% of Total	Key Details
GPU Cloud Infrastructure	~$4.8B	~94%	Core GPU-as-a-service on NVIDIA H100, A100, and Grace Blackwell. Reserved instance contracts (take-or-pay, avg ~5yr). First NVIDIA Exemplar Cloud for GB200. Pricing stable; H100 within 10% of YoY, A100 pricing increasing.
Platform Services	~$0.3B	~6%	Storage ($100M+ ARR, 80% attach in $1M+ customers), CPU, software (SKI, Mission Control, SUNK), Weights & Biases (acquired). Margin-accretive; growing faster than core GPU.
Total FY2025	$5.1B	100%	+168% YoY. Fastest cloud to $5B. Guidance: $12-13B for FY2026 (~140% growth).

Business Model

SUPPLIERS

NVIDIA (GPUs: H100, GB200, Rubin)
Data center developers
Power utilities
Networking equipment (InfiniBand)

GPUs / Power / DCs →

COREWEAVE

Purpose-built AI cloud platform
GPU/CPU/Storage as-a-service
Proprietary stack (SKI, Mission Control)
43 data centers, 850+ MW active
$66.8B revenue backlog

AI Cloud / Compute → $ Revenue

CUSTOMERS

Hyperscalers (Meta, OpenAI, MSFT)
AI natives (Cursor, Midjourney, Runway)
Enterprises (CrowdStrike, Rakuten)
Government (NASA, CoreWeave Federal)

Moat Assessment: NARROW

First-mover advantage + execution speed create near-term defensibility. CRWV larger than 15 largest NeoClouds combined; only Platinum ClusterMAX; first NVIDIA Exemplar Cloud for GB200; first to Vera Rubin H2 2026. Narrowed by NVIDIA single-supplier.
Deep customer relationships with take-or-pay contracts create switching costs. Meta, OpenAI, Microsoft, Anthropic executed multiple multi-year contracts. ~5-year avg contract; infrastructure integration makes switching costly once workloads deployed.
Proprietary software stack is an emerging moat but early. SUNK + Mission Control differentiate CRWV; adopted multi-cloud. NVIDIA ref arch validation broadens distribution. Hyperscalers have deeper ecosystems; CRWV edge is execution, not structural.

Stock vs. Earnings — Since IPO Performance

Stock $129, +222% from $40 IPO (Mar 2025). CRWV IPO'd 12 months ago. Stock surged to $160 (Q2 2025), pulled back to $74 (Q3-Q4 2025) on data center delivery concerns, recovered to $129 today on Q1 strength + $99B backlog.
FY2025 revenue $5.1B (+168% YoY) — fastest cloud to $5B in history. Adj EBITDA $3.1B (60% margin); GAAP net loss -$863M from $1.1B interest. Q1 2026 alone hit $2.1B (+112%) and $1.2B adj EBITDA.
Revenue backlog $99.4B (+~4x YoY); avg contract ~5 years. 1+ GW active, 3.5+ GW contracted, 8+ GW target by 2030. Every new capacity contract begins generating revenue by year-end 2026. 75% of 2027 ARR target already contracted.

Key Drivers of Operating Profit Growth (Since Inception)

Insatiable AI infrastructure demand driving 112-168% revenue growth. Multi-trillion-dollar AI infra build-out accelerating across hyperscalers, AI natives, enterprises. Backlog $99.4B (~4x YoY) with ~5-year avg duration provides unmatched visibility.
Rapid data center footprint expansion from 0 to 1+ GW active in ~3 years. 3.5+ GW contracted; plans 1.7+ GW active by year-end 2026 with $31-35B CapEx, backed by contracted demand. Execution pace unmatched in cloud.
Platform evolution from GPU-only to full-stack unlocks margin-accretive growth. 90%+ of RI customers use 2+ products; storage/software/CPU/networking each on track for $100M+ ARR by year-end. NVIDIA reference architecture extends TAM.

Quarterly Key Metrics

	Q1 2024	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025	Q4 2025	Q1 2026	Q2 2026E
Quarter End	Mar 2024	Jun 2024	Sep 2024	Dec 2024	Mar 2025	Jun 2025	Sep 2025	Dec 2025	Mar 2026	Jun 2026
Stock Price	—	—	—	—	$40	$160	$123	$74	$77	$129
Stock QoQ	—	—	—	—	—	+300%	-23%	-40%	+4%	+67%
Rev YoY	—	—	—	544%	420%	207%	134%	110%	112%	117%
OM%	9%	20%	20%	15%	-3%	2%	4%	-6%	-7%	-3%
R40 (Rev YoY + OM%)	—	—	—	559%	417%	208%	138%	105%	105%	114%
TTM OP ($M)	$15	$93	$210	$324	$280	$222	$156	$-46	$-163	$-259
TTM OP QoQ	-1230%	+502%	+126%	+54%	-14%	-21%	-29%	-129%	+253%	+59%
FCF/OP ttm	-5420%	-3438%	-1796%	-1835%	-2712%	-3582%	-5159%	15763%	6532%	5933%
Debt/EBITDA	0.0x	0.0x	7.9x	8.7x	6.9x	6.7x	7.1x	9.8x	9.8x	9.6x
P/E ttm	N/M	N/M	N/M	N/M	-5x	-54x	-74x	-31x	-25x	-33x

Recent Stock Performance & Drivers

Stock at $129, +67% post last quarter end from $77 (Q1) close. Q1 +112% rev beat + $40B Q1 commitments + DDTL 4.0 IG-rated milestone drove rally. P/E NM — trades on backlog/ARR multiples.
TTM OP -$163M (worse from -$46M Q4) as Q1 is margin trough. Adj EBITDA $1.2B (+91%); adj OI $21M (1% trough). FCF/OP +65% (positive). Q2-Q4 sequential margin expansion; low-double-digit adj OM by Q4.
Stock since IPO: $40 (Mar 2025) → $160 (Jun) → $74 (Dec) → $129 today. 200%+ swings as market digests CapEx scale, margin trough, then re-rates on backlog. Scorecard 4-5 passes; R40 trivially >40%. Debt/EBITDA 9.8x fails.

Opportunities

Backlog $99.4B (~4x YoY, +50% QoQ); $40B+ committed in Q1. 36% rec'd next 24 months, 75% in 4 years. 10 customers at $1B+. Anthropic added; Meta $21B. Exit ARR raised to $18-19B; $30B+ by 2027 (75%+ contracted).
Capital structure breakthrough: first IG-rated HPC infra DDTL at <6%; $20B+ raised YTD. WACD compressed 80bps YTD (~600bps since 2023). $2B from NVIDIA, $1B Jane Street. DDTL 5.0 priced for OpenAI + Cohere. S&P outlook stable→positive.
Customer/workload diversification accelerating beyond foundation labs. Fin services vertical $10B+ backlog (Jane Street +$6B, Hudson River). Physical AI $1B+. Non-IG AI labs <30% of backlog. CoreWeave Omni for sovereign/enterprise.

Challenges

Massive capital intensity: $31-35B FY2026 CapEx (~3x revenue); low end raised on component pricing. Backlog-tied; success-based pricing passes input cost. Q1 interest $536M, Q2 guide $650-730M; Debt/EBITDA 9.8x. No maturities until 2029.
NVIDIA single-supplier dependency + concentration in Top-2 AI labs. Entire GPU supply from NVIDIA; allocation/pricing risk. Two unnamed hyperscalers = significant revenue. Backlog diversifying (non-IG AI native <30%) but tied to NVIDIA roadmap.
GAAP losses persist: Q1 net loss -$740M (vs -$315M PY). Adj OI $21M (1% margin trough); recovery Q2-Q4. SBC $153M Q1. Powered-shell receipt incurs lease/depreciation 1-2 months ahead of revenue — drag until escape velocity Q3.

Next 12 Months

Q2 guide rev $2.45-2.6B, adj OI $30-90M; FY2026 reaffirmed $12-13B / $900M-$1.1B adj OI. Q2 starts margin recovery; low-double-digit adj OM by Q4. Beat with margin inflection would push P/E expansion.
1.7+ GW active power by year-end 2026 across 43+ data centers; first self-build site online late 2026. "Escape velocity" margin inflection Q2→Q3 as new capacity converts to revenue beyond 1-2 month deploy lag.
Vera Rubin platform deployment (H2 2026) brings next-gen GPU cycle. Initial Vera Rubin deals signed in Q1 (mostly 2027 revenue). NVIDIA reference architecture validation continues to expand TAM into enterprise + sovereign.

Next 12-24 Months

Path to $30B+ ARR exiting 2027 (75%+ contracted) requires doubling active power to 3+ GW. Exit 2026 ARR $18-19B; +60% growth to 2027 exit. Power capacity already secured for 2027 target. Backlog + execution determine upside.
Cost of capital trajectory: WACD compression continues toward IG. $1B+ annual interest is the GAAP-loss anchor. Full IG corporate rating would be transformative. S&P outlook stable→positive; rating upgrades 12-24mo a re-rating catalyst.
Margin expansion to 25-30% mature adj OM as deployments stabilize. Mature contract EBITDA ~70%; current 56% adj EBITDA includes deploy-phase drag. New fit-outs negative contribution months 1-2, mid-20s by month 3 — mix shift lifts margin.

Core Metrics Scorecard

	Q3'21	Q4'21	Q1'22	Q2'22	Q3'22	Q4'22	Q1'23	Q2'23	Q3'23	Q4'23	Q1'24	Q2'24	Q3'24	Q4'24	Q1'25	Q2'25	Q3'25	Q4'25	Q1'26	Q2'26E
Quarter End	Sep21	Dec21	Mar22	Jun22	Sep22	Dec22	Mar23	Jun23	Sep23	Dec23	Mar24	Jun24	Sep24	Dec24	Mar25	Jun25	Sep25	Dec25	Mar26	Jun26
R40 > 40%														✅	✅	✅	✅	✅	✅	✅
R40 accelerate																			✅	✅
TTM OP QoQ > 10%												✅	✅	✅					✅	✅
TTM OP QoQ accelerate												✅							✅
TTM FCF/OP > 60%										✅	❌	❌	❌	❌	❌	❌	❌	✅	✅	✅
Debt/EBITDA < 3.5										❌	✅	✅	❌	❌	❌	❌	❌	❌	❌	❌
Total passes	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1	1	1	2	5	4
Stock QoQ	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	+300%	-23%	-40%	+4%	+67%
P/E ttm	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	N/M	N/M	N/M	N/M	N/M	-5x	-54x	-74x	-31x	-25x	-33x

Q1 2026 jumped to 5 passes (was 2 in Q4 2025); Q2E at 4. R40 trivially >40% on +112% rev growth; FCF/OP turned positive (65% Q1, 59% Q2E) post Q4 2025; TTM OP QoQ recovery from -129% (Q4) to +253% (Q1).
Debt/EBITDA at 9.8x fails the 3.5x threshold — structural for capital-intensive HPC infra build. First-ever IG-rated HPC infra DDTL 4.0 (A-) at <6% lowers cost of capital; WACD compressed 80bps YTD. Leverage stays elevated until backlog conversion + cash flow ramp.
Scorecard reflects the AI-cloud hyper-growth profile better than traditional metrics. R40 >40% trivially passes on +112% rev growth. The bull case is sustained backlog conversion, capital structure improvements, and margin expansion to 25-30% mature adj OM as deployments stabilize.

Chart: R40 vs Stock Price (Since IPO)

Chart: Scorecard Total Passes vs Stock Price (Since IPO)

Source: SEC EDGAR annual and quarterly filings, company earnings conference calls and presentations.

Disclaimer: This report is for educational purposes only. NO investment advice.