| Finding | Assessment |
|---|---|
| 9-Quarter Stock Return | $139→$149 (+7%). Trough $82 (Q2 2025) → +82% rebound. TTM OP fell $534M→$488M then recovered to $507M. P/E expanded 41x→72x on cycle-recovery thesis. |
| Business Model | Pure-play semi materials & consumables — CMP, filtration, FOUPs, etch chemistries. $3.2B TTM, 75% unit-driven (MSI), 25% CapEx-driven (fab). 100% semi-cycle exposed, no non-semi pockets. |
| Competitive Moat | NARROW Designed-in POR positions, materials purity expertise compounds with node complexity. DuPont, Element, Solvay, Versum compete; China-domestic emerging in mainstream CMP. |
| Past 5-YR Drivers | CMC Materials acquisition (2022, $6.5B), WFE down-cycle 2023-2025, manufacturing CapEx cycle completed ($1B incremental capacity built). |
| Recent Stock Move | $82 trough (Q2 2025) → $149 (current). Q1 2026 +5% revenue inflection; raised industry outlook; GM expansion to 46.9%. |
| Revenue Trend | ACCELERATING Rev YoY: 5% (Q1 2026) → 7% (Q2 2026E). |
| Margin Trend | EXPANDING OM%: 17% (Q1 2026) → 18% (Q2 2026E). |
| TTM OP Trajectory | RECOVERING TTM OP QoQ: +4% (Q1 2026) → +8% (Q2 2026E). TTM OP $507M→$546M off the $488M trough. |
| Key Opportunities | 2027 WFE + fab construction up-cycle, GM expansion to 47-48% historical levels, advanced packaging $100M+ run-rate, Investor Day NYC Nov 2026. |
| Key Risks | 72x P/E on trough earnings, mainstream logic mixed, net leverage 3.6x, KSP/Rockrimmon dilution, Middle East noble-gas cost. |
| Catalysts | Q2 2026 print, KSP breakeven end-2026, leverage to 3x by end-2026, Investor Day Nov 2026, 2027 WFE ramp. |
| P/E(ttm) Valuation | 72x supported by cycle-recovery + GM expansion thesis. Upside 80x on capital return announcement; downside 40x on WFE cycle delay. |
| Segment | Q1 2026 Revenue | % of Total | Key Details |
|---|---|---|---|
| Advanced Purity Solutions (APS) | $464M | 57% | +7% YoY, 29.1% adj OM. Liquid filtration (3rd consecutive record quarter), FOUPs (3-yr revenue high), gas filtration. AI-driven advanced logic and DRAM POR wins. |
| Materials Solutions (MS) | $351M | 43% | +3% YoY, 22% adj OM. CMP consumables (slurries + pads), advanced deposition materials, selective etch chemistries. Strong CMP demand from HBM/CoWoS. |
Revenue mix: 75% unit-driven (correlated to MSI / wafer starts), 25% CapEx-driven (2/3 fab construction, 1/3 WFE). End markets Q1 2026: Advanced logic ~40% (2-nm ramp), Memory ~30% (DRAM + NAND layer scaling), Mainstream logic ~30% (mixed, 75-80% utilization). Regions Q1: Taiwan +18%, broader Asia +10%+, China modestly down. 85% of China revenue from in-region production, targeting 90% by end-2026. Competitors: DuPont (CMP), Solvay/Syensqo (specialty chemistry), Element Solutions, Versum (Merck), MKS-Atotech.
Specialty chemicals (Cu, Ce, slurries)
Polymers & resins
Filtration membranes & media
Noble gases (helium, neon) & precursors
Pure-play semi consumables:
CMP slurries/pads, filtration, FOUPs
Deposition / selective etch chemistries
75% unit-driven (MSI) · 25% CapEx-driven (fab)
$812M Q1'26 ($3.2B TTM) · 100% semi cycle · LT ceiling ~10-12%
Foundries (TSMC, Samsung, GlobalFoundries)
Memory (Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung)
Logic (Intel, AMD, NVIDIA via foundries)
Mainstream & specialty (TI, ON, STM)
| USD | Q1'24 | Q2'24 | Q3'24 | Q4'24 | Q1'25 | Q2'25 | Q3'25 | Q4'25 | Q1'26 | Q2'26E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter End | Mar24 | Jun24 | Sep24 | Dec24 | Mar25 | Jun25 | Sep25 | Dec25 | Mar26 | Jun26 |
| Stock | $139 | $134 | $114 | $99 | $88 | $82 | $93 | $87 | $109 | $149 |
| Stock QoQ | +17% | -4% | -15% | -13% | -11% | -7% | +14% | -7% | +25% | +37% |
| Rev YoY | -16% | -10% | -9% | 5% | 0% | -2% | 0% | -3% | 5% | 7% |
| OM% | 15% | 16% | 17% | 18% | 16% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 17% | 18% |
| R40 (RevYoY+OM%) | -1% | 6% | 8% | 22% | 16% | 12% | 15% | 12% | 22% | 25% |
| TTM OP ($M) | $445 | $462 | $465 | $534 | $539 | $526 | $512 | $488 | $507 | $546 |
| TTM OP QoQ | +4% | +4% | +1% | +15% | +1% | -2% | -3% | -5% | +4% | +8% |
| FCF/OP | 56% | 63% | 60% | 59% | 50% | 50% | 65% | 81% | 100% | 121% |
| Debt/EBITDA | 4.9x | 4.7x | 4.7x | 4.1x | 4.1x | 4.2x | 4.1x | 4.0x | 3.9x | 3.9x |
| P/E(ttm) | 37x | 73x | 54x | 51x | 43x | 41x | 47x | 49x | 56x | 72x |
| Q3'21 | Q4'21 | Q1'22 | Q2'22 | Q3'22 | Q4'22 | Q1'23 | Q2'23 | Q3'23 | Q4'23 | Q1'24 | Q2'24 | Q3'24 | Q4'24 | Q1'25 | Q2'25 | Q3'25 | Q4'25 | Q1'26 | Q2'26E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter End | Sep21 | Dec21 | Mar22 | Jun22 | Sep22 | Dec22 | Mar23 | Jun23 | Sep23 | Dec23 | Mar24 | Jun24 | Sep24 | Dec24 | Mar25 | Jun25 | Sep25 | Dec25 | Mar26 | Jun26 |
| R40 > 40% | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | ||||||||||||
| R40 accelerate | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | ||||||||||
| TTM OP QoQ > 10% | ✅ | ✅ | ||||||||||||||||||
| TTM OP QoQ accelerate | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | |||||||||||
| TTM FCF/OP > 60% | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | |||||||||||||||
| Debt/EBITDA < 3.5 | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | |||||||||||||||||
| Total passes | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| Stock QoQ | +2% | +10% | -2% | -31% | -6% | -25% | +25% | +34% | -14% | +28% | +17% | -4% | -15% | -13% | -11% | -7% | +14% | -7% | +25% | +37% |
| P/E(ttm) | 89x | 87x | -2957x | -1338x | 285x | 170x | 62x | 37x | 26x | 34x | 37x | 73x | 54x | 51x | 43x | 41x | 47x | 49x | 56x | 72x |