Palantir Technologies (PLTR)

Investment Review After Q1 FY2026 Earnings (2026.05.04)
TL;DR
Palantir is the leader in operational AI for governments and enterprises, providing the AIP platform and Foundry data backbone that put agentic AI into production workflows. Just reported: Q1 FY2026 revenue $1.633B (+85% YoY, fastest growth as a public company), adjusted operating margin 60%, FCF margin 57%, US Commercial +133% — exceptional. FY2026 guide raised by $1B to $7.656B (+71% YoY); implied Q2 growth still ~75%+ — strong. Stock at $146 with 133x P/E(ttm), down from 463x peak — premium that requires sustained 70%+ growth and US Commercial dominance to compound.

Summary

FindingAssessment
5-Year Stock ReturnStock currently $146, up 524% from $23 (5 years ago). TTM OP from near-zero to $1,991M. P/E(ttm) at 133x (compressing from 463x). Q1 FCF $925M (57% margin). Cash $8B, virtually no debt.
Business ModelSTRONG. AI/data analytics platform. Government 53% + Commercial 47%. Foundry, Gotham, AIP, Apollo, Warp Speed. 1,007 customers (+31% YoY). Q1 revenue $1.633B (+85%). 88% adj GM, 60% adj OM. Capital-light.
Competitive MoatNARROW — widening. Ontology + AIP "no-slop zone" winning today (AIG, GE, Moder, Airbus, Thomas Cavanagh 97% daily usage; AI labs trying to replicate Palantir are failing). Government: Maven 4x in 12 months, ShipOS, $300M USDA, NVIDIA Sovereign AI OS partnership. Long-term moat test: foundation-model commoditization (token cost down 1000x in 3 yr) — Jevons paradox argues for more demand for the AIP harness, not less.
Past 5-YR DriversAIP catalyzing US Commercial hypergrowth (+133% YoY); operating leverage to 60% adj OM with only 70 salespeople ($1.5M rev/employee); US Government inflecting (+84% YoY) on Maven/ShipOS/USDA; capital-light model converting 130%+ of OP into FCF.
Recent Stock MoveStock currently $146, up 295% from $37 (Sep 2024). Peak $182 (Sep 2025), then -20% pullback. TTM OP +545% in 8 quarters. P/E compressing from 463x to 133x as earnings catch up. Rule of 40 at 145 (highest ever).
Revenue TrendFLAT Rev YoY: 85% (Q1 2026) → 85% (Q2 2026E).
Margin TrendEXPANDING OM%: 46% (Q1 2026) → 48% (Q2 2026E).
TTM OP TrajectoryDECELERATING TTM OP QoQ: 41% (Q1 2026) → 31% (Q2 2026E). TTM OP $1,991M.
Key OpportunitiesUS Commercial guided to >$3.224B FY2026 (≥120% YoY). Q1 TCV $1.18B (+45%); RDV $4.92B (+112%); top 20 customers $108M each (+55%). NDR 150%. Defense AI (Maven 4x; ShipOS, USDA $300M). NVIDIA Sovereign AI OS. AIP replacing legacy software (CRM/SAP). $8B cash for M&A optionality.
Key Risks133x P/E demands sustained 70%+ growth — even FY2026 guide forward P/E ~80x. International commercial only +26% YoY (vs +133% US Comm). Capacity constraint with only 70 salespeople (Karp: "we just cannot meet demand"). Foundation-model commoditization risk if Anthropic/OpenAI/hyperscalers crack enterprise governance.
CatalystsQ2 FY2026 guided $1.797-1.801B revenue, adj OP $1.063-1.067B (~59% margin). FY2026 guide raised to $7.656B (+71% YoY) — largest ever raise. R40 129% guide. AIPCon 9 / DevCon 5 product rollouts. US 100%+ growth ambition. Defense FY26 budget execution + Maven/Apollo scale.
P/E(ttm) ValuationEXTREME at 133x (5-year range: NM to 463x, profitable range: 133x-463x). Highest in our coverage. Compressing from 463x as earnings scale. On FY2026 guide of $7.66B revenue and $4.44B adj OP, forward P/E ~80x. If $10B+ FY2027 at 50%+ adj OM, 60-65x forward becomes defensible. Any growth miss triggers severe correction.

Q1 FY2026 Key Data

Key Takeaways from Earnings Call

Key Segments and Revenue Mix (FY2025)

SegmentRevenue% of TotalKey Details
Government$2,402M54%+53% YoY; US Gov $1,855M (+55%), Int’l Gov $547M (+47%); DoD Maven, Warp Speed, Navy $448M shipbuilding contract
Commercial$2,073M46%+60% YoY; US Commercial $1,465M (+109%), Int’l Commercial $608M (+2%); AIP driving hyper-adoption
Total FY2025$4,475M100%+56% YoY. US 74% ($3,320M, +75%). GAAP OP $1,414M (32%). Adj OP $2,254M (50%). FCF $2.27B (51%). Rule of 40: 106%.

Business Model

SUPPLIERS

Cloud providers (AWS, Azure, GCP)
AI model providers (OpenAI, Anthropic)
Hardware/infrastructure partners
Forward deployed engineers (FDEs)

Platform / AI Models
PALANTIR

Foundry (commercial data OS)
Gotham (defense intelligence)
AIP (AI Platform + ontology)
Warp Speed (manufacturing)
Capital-light: 86% adj gross margin

Subscriptions / Services $ Revenue
CUSTOMERS

U.S. DoD & intelligence agencies
U.S. civil agencies (IRS, VA, CDC)
U.K. & allied governments
Enterprise (energy, healthcare, mfg)
954 total customers (+34% YoY)

Moat Assessment: NARROW

Stock vs. Earnings — 5-Year Performance

Past 5-Year Key Drivers

Quarterly Key Metrics

USDQ1'24Q2'24Q3'24Q4'24Q1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26E
Quarter EndMar 2024Jun 2024Sep 2024Dec 2024Mar 2025Jun 2025Sep 2025Dec 2025Mar 2026Jun 2026E
Stock Price$23$26$37$76$84$136$182$178$146$146
Stock QoQ+38%+13%+44%+103%+12%+62%+34%-3%-18%0%
Rev YoY+21%+27%+30%+36%+39%+48%+63%+70%+85%+85%
OM%13%15%16%1%20%27%33%41%46%48%
R40 (Rev YoY + OM%)+34%+43%+46%+38%+59%+75%+96%+111%+131%+133%
TTM OP ($M)1972923653104055698491,4131,9912,615
TTM OP QoQ+64%+48%+25%-15%+31%+40%+49%+66%+41%+31%
FCF/OP ttm326%238%269%368%326%300%211%149%135%129%
Debt/EBITDA0.3x0.3x0.3x0.2x0.2x0.2x0.1x0.1x0.1x0.1x
P/E(ttm)169x145x178x398x372x463x447x284x171x133x

Recent Stock Performance & Drivers

Opportunities

Challenges

Next 12 Months

Next 12-24 Months

Core Metrics Scorecard

Q3'21Q4'21Q1'22Q2'22Q3'22Q4'22Q1'23Q2'23Q3'23Q4'23Q1'24Q2'24Q3'24Q4'24Q1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26
Quarter EndSep21Dec21Mar22Jun22Sep22Dec22Mar23Jun23Sep23Dec23Mar24Jun24Sep24Dec24Mar25Jun25Sep25Dec25Mar26Jun26E
R40 > 40%
R40 accelerate
TTM OP QoQ > 10%
TTM OP QoQ accelerate
TTM FCF/OP > 60%
Debt/EBITDA < 3.5
Total passes34423331354552666655
Stock QoQ-9%-24%-25%-34%-10%-21%+32%+81%+4%+4%+38%+13%+44%+103%+12%+62%+34%-3%-18%0%
P/E(ttm)311x173x169x145x178x398x372x463x447x284x171x133x

Chart: R40 vs Stock Price (Since 2020)

Chart: Scorecard Total Passes vs Stock Price (Since 2020)

Source: SEC EDGAR annual and quarterly filings, company earnings conference calls and presentations.
Disclaimer: This report is for educational purposes only. NO investment advice.