| 5-Year Stock Return | Stock currently $146, up 524% from $23 (5 years ago). TTM OP from near-zero to $1,991M. P/E(ttm) at 133x (compressing from 463x). Q1 FCF $925M (57% margin). Cash $8B, virtually no debt. |
| Business Model | STRONG. AI/data analytics platform. Government 53% + Commercial 47%. Foundry, Gotham, AIP, Apollo, Warp Speed. 1,007 customers (+31% YoY). Q1 revenue $1.633B (+85%). 88% adj GM, 60% adj OM. Capital-light. |
| Competitive Moat | NARROW — widening. Ontology + AIP "no-slop zone" winning today (AIG, GE, Moder, Airbus, Thomas Cavanagh 97% daily usage; AI labs trying to replicate Palantir are failing). Government: Maven 4x in 12 months, ShipOS, $300M USDA, NVIDIA Sovereign AI OS partnership. Long-term moat test: foundation-model commoditization (token cost down 1000x in 3 yr) — Jevons paradox argues for more demand for the AIP harness, not less. |
| Past 5-YR Drivers | AIP catalyzing US Commercial hypergrowth (+133% YoY); operating leverage to 60% adj OM with only 70 salespeople ($1.5M rev/employee); US Government inflecting (+84% YoY) on Maven/ShipOS/USDA; capital-light model converting 130%+ of OP into FCF. |
| Recent Stock Move | Stock currently $146, up 295% from $37 (Sep 2024). Peak $182 (Sep 2025), then -20% pullback. TTM OP +545% in 8 quarters. P/E compressing from 463x to 133x as earnings catch up. Rule of 40 at 145 (highest ever). |
| Revenue Trend | FLAT Rev YoY: 85% (Q1 2026) → 85% (Q2 2026E). |
| Margin Trend | EXPANDING OM%: 46% (Q1 2026) → 48% (Q2 2026E). |
| TTM OP Trajectory | DECELERATING TTM OP QoQ: 41% (Q1 2026) → 31% (Q2 2026E). TTM OP $1,991M. |
| Key Opportunities | US Commercial guided to >$3.224B FY2026 (≥120% YoY). Q1 TCV $1.18B (+45%); RDV $4.92B (+112%); top 20 customers $108M each (+55%). NDR 150%. Defense AI (Maven 4x; ShipOS, USDA $300M). NVIDIA Sovereign AI OS. AIP replacing legacy software (CRM/SAP). $8B cash for M&A optionality. |
| Key Risks | 133x P/E demands sustained 70%+ growth — even FY2026 guide forward P/E ~80x. International commercial only +26% YoY (vs +133% US Comm). Capacity constraint with only 70 salespeople (Karp: "we just cannot meet demand"). Foundation-model commoditization risk if Anthropic/OpenAI/hyperscalers crack enterprise governance. |
| Catalysts | Q2 FY2026 guided $1.797-1.801B revenue, adj OP $1.063-1.067B (~59% margin). FY2026 guide raised to $7.656B (+71% YoY) — largest ever raise. R40 129% guide. AIPCon 9 / DevCon 5 product rollouts. US 100%+ growth ambition. Defense FY26 budget execution + Maven/Apollo scale. |
| P/E(ttm) Valuation | EXTREME at 133x (5-year range: NM to 463x, profitable range: 133x-463x). Highest in our coverage. Compressing from 463x as earnings scale. On FY2026 guide of $7.66B revenue and $4.44B adj OP, forward P/E ~80x. If $10B+ FY2027 at 50%+ adj OM, 60-65x forward becomes defensible. Any growth miss triggers severe correction. |