Consumer Internet

These platforms already have most of the users they’re going to get. Netflix has 325M+ subscribers, Uber is in 70+ countries, Spotify has 250M+ premium users. The easy growth is done — adding the next 50 million is 10x harder than the first 50 million.

When you can’t add users fast enough, you need to charge each user more. But consumers push back on price increases — Netflix raised prices 5 times, Uber added fees, DoorDash raised commissions. There’s a ceiling to how much people will pay for convenience and entertainment.

Most of these companies just reached peak margins for the first time — Netflix at 28%+, Uber finally FCF positive, DASH approaching profitability. But AI cuts both ways, and consumer carries asymmetric risk vs. enterprise: 2C users switch in one click when a better AI experience appears — there's no multi-year integration lock-in, no compliance certifications, no proprietary data feedback loop the way enterprise software has. The bull case: AI improves recommendations, reduces costs, and enables ad targeting that lifts ARPU. The bear case: AI agents bypass platforms entirely — why open DoorDash if your AI assistant orders for you? Why browse Netflix if an AI picks and plays? If platforms become invisible middlemen, their pricing power evaporates. The next 2-3 years reveal whether AI makes these platforms more valuable or more replaceable.